First Milestone

The time has now been and gone for submitting an entry for the first milestone, and the chance to win either $30,000 or $20,000 for the top two places.

The images below are the state of play (on the 30% visible data!) just after the first milestone ( I didn't capture this image in time so some teams have made an extra submission since).

There was a bit of movement in the last 2 days.

• Tom & Jerry changed their name to reveal themselves (Petterson & Caetano). This was interesting for me as they are from a relatively new machine learning lab here in Australia that I had not been aware of. They jumped up to 3rd position before the last submission but were overhauled at the last minute
•  Willem Mestrom made a big leap on his last submission to get into 3rd position. He was obviously keeping his best (or was he?) until the very last moment. This might be a good tactical play if he looking towards the $3 million rather than the short term smaller prizes.
• Planet Melbourne, after making consistent daily submissions throughout the competition did not take the opportunity to make one last submission.
• It is good to see Chris R still in the top 10. Chris has been up there since the very start.Interestingly Chris was cut off from submitting for a while due to Hurricane Irene taking his power away.

 Interestingly, positions 2,3 & 4 are now taken by members of The Ensemble from Netflix fame. Position 1 contains Dave, who was in an original team called Ensemble Team, and also entered Netflix as a member of Ensemble Experts , and I (also a member of Market Makers) ran a competition on Ensembling the Netflix Data and have looked at ensembling other competitions.
There seems to be a pattern here!

 

Note you can click on the images to enlarge them.

The plot below shows the Lowess line fit of the error as a function of the number of entries submitted.